A post analysis is looking back at the outcome of a weather situation in order to determine the strengths and weaknesses from the forecast. In forecasting, we typically think of forecasting the weather for the future. The “fore” in forecasting means to look forward and tell in advance. One way to improve in forecasting is to learn from mistakes made in previous forecasts by looking back. A post analysis can be done for any weather situation. Examples include high temperature forecasts, low temperature forecasts and the character of a precipitation event. Post analyses are popular when it comes to big weather events such as a severe thunderstorm outbreaks, tornado outbreaks and winter storm outbreaks. These big forecasts will be followed by many more people, thus a forecaster is often more cognizant of the successes and failures that occur with these forecasts. It is a good idea to keep a forecast journal that gives both your forecast and the results that occurred. Similar weather patterns will repeat in the future thus forecasting skill will typically grow when an effort is made to learn from each forecast made. Each piece of knowledge gained will help with developing improved forecasts in the future. |