One reason to do a post analysis is to learn from mistakes. Since there can always be a forecast to be made it can be difficult to find time to look back at a previous forecast and examine the specifics on what went right and what went wrong with the forecast. Looking back will help you learn from mistakes, especially if you have taken good notes. This is one reason that keeping a forecasting journal is important. Keeping a journal will help you remember the forecasted values and notes about the general weather pattern and important mesoscale features. It is a good idea to also keep track on the MOS numbers and compare those to your forecast and for what really happened. MOS stands for Model Output Statistics. They are computerized forecast numbers for a specific location. Of particular interest are the high temperature, low temperature and precipitation probability and character. MOS values have improved over time and it is becoming more and more difficult to outforecast the MOS values. With experience, outforecasting MOS can be done, especially in changing and big weather situations. Below is example of information to put into a forecast journal. Take note of these values and also add post analysis notes for why you think the forecast ended up turning out like it did. This journal will focus on the next day forecast. What are the important synoptic scale and mesoscale features that you see when looking through weather data: MOS values of high and low temperature: Your forecast high and low temperature: Actual high and low temperature: MOS POP (Probability of Precipitation) values: Expected precipitation character from MOS (i.e. type, severe, intensity, spread, convective, dynamic, etc.): Your expected precipitation POP and character: Actual precipitation character and approximate areal coverage: Post Analysis: What went right and wrong with the forecast?: |