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POST ANALYSIS: THE PAYOFF

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

In this concluding writing on post analyses we look at several reasons why they are important to do. Strong post analysis skills require keeping a daily forecast journal which gives an overview of the synoptic and mesoscale influences on the forecast area, the MOS predictions, your predictions and the actual conditions that occurred. Take notes of the differences between the computer forecasts, your forecasts and what actually occurs and hypothesize reasons for the differences. Several reasons why performing post analyses and keeping a forecast journal can increase forecasting skill are given below:

1. Make it easier to pick up on a similar weather pattern from the past when making a forecast
2. Helps the forecaster pick up on the typical synoptic and mesoscale influences on the forecast area
3. Helps the forecaster learn from mistakes that may have not been noticed otherwise
4. Increases use of weather data and forecasting skills instead of relying solely on the NWS/SPC forecasts
5. Gives the forecaster a specific method and record to learn from mistakes
6. Helps you learn which model MOS does best in certain situations
7. Helps the forecaster to be more cognizant of the various factors influencing the forecast
8. Reduces the frequency of repeating forecast mistakes
9. Gives you good reference material (models, Skew-T, MOS, radar, satellite, etc.) of big weather events
10. Leads to a more rapid increase in forecasting skill