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THE ATMOSPHERE AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

The atmosphere is a complex system. Characteristics of a complex system are several variables, connections between various variables, interdependence of variables and adaptations that occur when stresses are added. The various variables that make up the atmosphere include but are not limited to: various gases, gas density, pressure, volume, moisture, land surface characteristics, solar input and temperature. These variables are governed by several forces and relationships such as gravity, gas laws, radiation laws, and fundamental forces (e.g. gravity, friction). All these variables are connected. In other words, all the gas is on the Earth’s surface and every gas molecule has neighboring gas molecules and through enough connections, every gas molecule has the ability to interact with another gas molecule given enough time. There is also interdependence in the atmosphere. Changing the characteristics of one molecule is going to influence a change on surrounding molecules and given enough time will influence all molecules. The state of a molecule is going to also depend on the state of molecules surrounding it. The atmosphere is constantly trying to adapt to stresses that occur within the system. Examples of how these stresses are attempted to be balanced include the generation of wind, vertical movements of air and movement of heat energy. Some results of being in a complex system include the following:

1) Extreme events can occur within a complex system (e.g. hurricanes, severe storms, intense arctic air masses, intense jet stream wind)

2) A slight change at one location can have tremendous changes in the state of the atmosphere when given enough time (e.g. Chaos theory… butterfly flapping wings eventually leading to a tornado in Texas). This makes the atmosphere extremely hard to predict as time increases (e.g. difficult to forecast exact weather characteristics 2 weeks out and beyond).

3) Out of a mixture of simple gases can emerge large sized structured phenomena- (e.g. mid-latitude cyclones, hurricanes, jet stream, subtropical high)

4) There are weather changes and weather diversity across the planet. There is a constant change in the atmospheric system that occurs.

5) Tipping-point phenomena can occur with climate- climate can remain relatively stable and then tip quickly to a completely new climate (e.g. snowball earth, runaway greenhouse, ice age, water world earth)