SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY
<44 | Convection not likely |
44-50 | Likely thunderstorms |
51-52 | Isolated severe storms |
53-56 | Widely scattered severe |
>56 | Scattered severe storms |
|
0-3 | Weak |
4-5 | Moderate |
6-8 | Large |
8+ | Severe |
|
15-25 | Small convective potential |
26-39 | Moderate convective potential |
40+ | High convective potential |
|
1 - 1,500 | Positive |
1,500 - 2,500 | Large |
2,500+ | Extreme |
|
150-300 | Slight severe |
300-400 | Severe possible |
400+ | Tornadic possible |
|
150-300 | Possible supercell |
300-400 | Supercells favorable |
400+ | Tornadic possible |
|
-1 to -4 | Marginal instability |
-4 to -7 | Large instability |
-8 or less | Extreme instability |
|
<45 | Supercells favorable |
<10 | Too sheared |
teens | Optimum |
|
EHI >1 | Supercells likely |
1 to 5 | F2, F3 tornadoes possible |
5+ | F4, F5 tornadoes possible |
NOTES:
*Max uvv = square root of 2 × CAPE
*BRN (Bulk Richardson Number) = CAPE / (0-6 km) Shear
*Showalter (SWI) = used
when elevated convection is most likely (cool season)
*EHI = (SR HEL × CAPE) /160,000
*SWEAT = 12(850Td) +20(TT-49) +2(V850) + (V500) +125(sin(dd500-dd850) + 0.2)
*Total Totals = (T850- T500) + (Td850 - T500)= vertical totals plus cross totals
*K index = (T850 -T500) + (Td850 - Tdd700)
*SR Helicity : determines amount of horizontal streamwise vorticity available for storm ingestion
*streamwise = parallel to storm inflow
*Important to look for thermal and dewpoint ridges
(THETA-E)
*For tornado, inflow must be greater than 20 knots
*20 to 30% of mesocyclones produce tornadoes
*Tornado types: rope, needle, tube, wedge
*Look for differential advection; warm/ moist
at surface, dry air in mid levels
*Severe weather hodograph: veering, strong sfc to 850 directional shear
* >100 J/kg negative buoyancy is significant
*Good match: BRN < 20 and CAPE >2,000 J/kg
*Strong cap when > 2 degrees Celsius
*Study depth of moisture, TT unreasonable when low level moisture is lacking
*KI used for heavy convective rain, values vary with location/season
*Instability enhanced
by ... daytime heating, outflow boundaries
*Models generally have weak handle on return flow from Gulf,
low level jet, convective rainfall, orography,
mesoscale boundaries, and boundary conditions
*Large hail when freezing
level >675 mb, high CAPE,
supercell
*Synoptic scale uplift from either surface
WAA or upper level divergence
*Fair weather cumulus: cumulus humulus, cumulus mediocrus
*T-storm warning when Hail > 3/4", wind > 58 mph, gate to gate shear > 90 knots
*Sounding types: Inverted V, goal post, Type C, wet microburst
|
|
|